Another report forecasts Northwest power shortage coming

Published 6:32 pm Sunday, February 22, 2026

1/2

According to the North American Electric Reliability Corp., the Northwest has enough electricity in reserve to meet NERC’s standards. But the cushion will be gone by the winter of 2031-32. (Courtesy U.S. Department of Energy)

The Northwest should have enough electricity for the next three years, but then it gets dicey, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corp.

In its annual report on the power system, NERC projects Oregon, Washington, Montana, northern Idaho and Northern California will be at “high risk” of energy shortages by 2029. Power outages are most likely in the winter, though summer heat waves could also cause the demand for electricity to spike past the supply, according to NERC.

Several other regions in the U.S. also will be at high risk. The North American outlook for having enough electricity throughout the coming decade is worsening, the assessment states.

“This assessment is not a prediction of failure, but an early warning on the trajectory of risk,” NERC director of reliability John Moura said in a statement. “The path forward is still manageable, but only if planned resources come online and in time.”

NERC sets standards for grid reliability in the continental U.S., Canada and Baja California. Its assessment, released late last month, echoes other warnings about looming energy shortages as wind and solar power replace coal and natural gas plants.

The Northwest currently has enough electricity in reserve to meet NERC’s standards. But the cushion will be gone by the winter of 2031-32, NERC projects.

Even before then, the region can expect power outages in extreme weather, with shortages potentially totaling 85 hours in 2029, according to the assessment.

Data centers, semiconductor manufacturing, population growth, and the electrification of homes and vehicles will drive up the demand for electricity, according to NERC. Peak demand will increase by 6.6 gigawatts, or 19%, over the next 10 years, NERC estimates.

Windmills, solar panels and batteries with a nameplate capacity of 10 gigawatts are expected to come online in the next five years. But because they are weather dependent, they will actually contribute 3.2 gigawatts to meet peak demands, NERC projects.

More power sources will be needed, though the region’s increasing reliance on an uneven supply of electricity from windmills and solar panels complicates planning, according to NERC. According to a recent assessment by the Western Electric Coordinating Council, which is associated with NERC, the Northwest could see energy shortages as early as 2028.

A study commissioned by Washington electric utilities last year said the state could suffer power outages now in a prolonged cold snap.