PACIFIC COUNTY — A preliminary study examining the feasibility of running a modest, seasonal ferry service on Willapa Bay found that such an idea was financially practical, according to a presentation that local stakeholders received this month from University of Washington graduate students.

This initial feasibility study was undertaken by six students from UW’s Foster School of Business as part of the partnership between the university’s Livable City Year program and the Pacific County Economic Development Council (EDC). Working on the study for about 10 weeks, the students concluded in a 54-page report to the EDC board that implementing a small ferry servicing pedestrians and cyclists on the bay from late spring to early fall is doable and could break even in as few as four years, “based on the identified market demand, potential revenue streams, and operational setup.”

The students looked at half a dozen case studies of ferry services operating in the state and throughout the country. They also conducted market, demand and financial analysis to help determine whether Willapa Bay could support a ferry.

As currently proposed, the ferry would make three stops around the bay; at the Port of Peninsula in Nahcotta, at the Port of Willapa Harbor in Raymond, and at the Tokeland Marina.

Operating a ferry in the bay that could connect both ends of the county and serve both residents and tourists is an idea that has long been kicked around locally but has seen minimal movement toward actually becoming a reality.

Case studiesThe group looked at six ferry case studies — three operating in Washington, and three elsewhere in the U.S. — to provide insight into varying operational methods, pricing structures, customer engagement strategies and promotional tactics.

Some of the ferries that were analyzed, like Kitsap Fast Ferries, which operates between Kitsap County and Seattle, offer diverse fare options that include several different day or monthly passes and reduced fares for eligible low-income travelers. Others, such as the Bald Head Island Ferry that operates in North Carolina, implements seasonal pricing variations and offers discounts during the non-peak season to try and attract more passengers.

The Lady of the Lake ferry service, a boat tour agency that operates on Lake Chelan in central Washington, is centered on providing the optimal scenic route for passengers rather than just serving as a mode of transportation. The Mackinac Island Ferry, operating in Michigan, coordinates its schedule with other local transportation options like buses, taxis and bike rentals to help passengers more easily transition between the ferry terminal and their final destination.

Another Washington ferry service, King County Water Taxis, provides parking with daily and monthly permit options to accommodate travelers and commuters with varying needs. In Georgia, the ferry servicing Cumberland Island has introduced e-bike reservation options “to enhance their exploration of destinations beyond the ferry terminal.”

Target marketIn its study, the UW grad students also crafted customer personas — or in this case, visitor personas — based on data that was provided by the Pacific County Tourism Bureau.

Visitor personas, the group said, are a “pivotal tool utilized in defining the target market for the Willapa Bay Ferry System and shaping the visitor experience.” The four personas that were crafted represent a range of demographics, preferences and motivations that informed the group’s strategic approach when it came to offerings and pricing structure.

The first persona, dubbed the “Peninsula Crusaders,” are what the group describes as an active golden couple. This retired married couple are repeat visitors from out of the area who are interested in the varied outdoor opportunities that the peninsula offers. According to the data the group received, this persona represents about 60% of those visiting here traveling in a party of two.

This couple would view taking the ferry as a leisurely way to travel while also enjoying the scenic views. Marketing approaches toward this subsection of visitors include emphasizing the relaxation aspect of the ferry journey while highlighting nearby parks, wildlife reserves and outdoor attractions.

Other personas created include: the Wanderlust Nomad, a young solo traveler visiting the area for the first time who’s interested in exploring off-the-beaten path destinations; the Shoreline Squad, a small family with kids who are seeking a mix of outdoor adventures and family-friendly attractions; and the Coastal Crew, a group of adventurous friends passing through the area that are interested in scenic bike trails and opportunities for outdoor recreation.

Forecasting demandThe tourism bureau also provided historical data on the volume of visitors coming to the peninsula in recent years, with the group honing in on monthly volume from 2018-23. This data shows that, despite the covid-19 pandemic, visitation to the peninsula has grown at a 4.2% annual rate in recent years.

More specifically, the data showed that the period between May and October saw a slightly higher annual growth rate of 4.4% from 2018-23, while the four-month period from June to September saw an even higher growth rate of 4.9%.

“These findings informed the definition of an operational season for the ferry service, set from May through October, with the peak season identified as June through September,” the study states.

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‘These findings informed the definition of an operational season for the ferry service, set from May through October, with the peak season identified as June through September.’

Ferry feasibility study

Using data from 2023 as a baseline, when the peninsula logged an estimated 4.15 million visits, the group conservatively forecast visitor growth at 1% annually over a 10-year period — from 2025-34, if the ferry was to begin operations in 2025. Under this forecast, the number of visitors to the peninsula would hit 4.63 million in 2034.

But the students are under no illusions that the ferry would operate as a major mode of transportation for visitors to the area. In forecasting ridership figures for the same 10-year period beginning in 2025, the group projects that about 1.5% of monthly visitors when the ferry is operating from May through October would actually ride the ferry — growing from about 42,000 riders in 2025 to nearly 46,000 riders in 2034.

Ticket pricing, revenueAfter cultivating the visitor personas and analyzing market demand, the group opted to target adult tourists and families when it came to setting ticket prices. One statistic they cited, courtesy of data from the tourism bureau, was that about 78% of visitors in recent years were not traveling with children, while just 22% were.

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The peninsula logged an estimated 4.15 million visits in 2023

The group recommended setting the price for an adult ticket at $28 and at $12 for children, without factoring in Washington state’s sales tax. They also proposed a family discount, consisting of at least one adult and one child, that would offer 25% off for each adult ticket. For instance, the cost of a family of four — with two adults and two children — would come in at $66 when applying the discount, rather than the $80 at regular price.

Factoring in the ticket costs with the projected ridership figures, the students pegged after-tax revenue at about $1.07 million in 2025, and climbing to $1.17 million in 2034.

Finding a vesselOf course, a ferry can’t exist without an actual vessel to transport passengers. The group analyzed the vessels used by the ferries in the six case studies, which differed in material, length, horsepower and capacity.

In the end, the group identified an “ideal” ferry: a 48-passenger vessel originally made for sightseeing that was constructed with fiberglass and is 50-feet long, 15-feet wide and with a draft of less than five feet.

“With a draft of 4.3 feet, our proposed boat will only require minor dredging of the Nahcotta and South Bend/Raymond ports. The dredging of these ports was previously planned regardless of ferry installation, and Willapa Bay has its dredging boat, making the venture much more financially feasible,” according to the study.

Heavier than aluminum, the extra weight that fiberglass provides “translates to better seafaring capabilities and increased resilience to more intense weather,” the students state. “Fiberglass ships aren’t as easily buffeted by the wind, which is a key factor considering the importance of comfort for all passengers on board.”

The cruising speed of the recommended ship is 23 knots, which the students said is fast enough to maintain the proposed 12-hour schedule when the ferry is open for travel. Due to the structure of the vessel, the cabin is fully covered and protected from the elements, “making it ideal for travel across a bay with a wide range of possible weather conditions.

“There is also ample room on the deck for the installation of bike racks, a very modest cost, compared to the cost of the ship. This will encourage the cyclists traveling south to South Bend to see the ferry as an option for getting to Nahcotta.”

Not including any shipping and retrofitting costs, the vessel carries a price tag of $250,000. That cost was incorporated into the financial model that the group developed, which also includes other anticipated expenses like taxes, licensing, insurance and labor — for both crew and office staff — as well as regulatory, fuel and maintenance costs.

In all, the students set anticipated start-up costs at $731,000 if the vessel is purchased upfront.

Reaction, next stepsSue Yirku, Pacific County Economic Development Council’s executive director, said after the presentation that the UW students were “stellar” and credited them for helping get the ball rolling on an idea that is popular locally but was unlikely to get prioritized anytime soon.

Kelly Rupp, chair of the Pacific County Planning Commission and a consultant who has spearheaded local engagement in the LCY partnership along with Yirku, was impressed by the comprehensiveness of the students in completing the feasibility study.

Many of the questions from the stakeholders who took in the presentation earlier this month revolved around the group’s financial projections, whether it be on maintenance costs, ticket prices, what kind of funding opportunities may be available and, particularly, with purchasing the identified vessel and other start-up costs. Rupp noted that the students themselves called for additional scrutiny of their financial projections, and Yirku pointed out that this preliminary study was completed over just a 10-week period.

Stephen Dunk, a community outreach specialist for the Washington State Department of Commerce, wondered whether an electric-powered ferry would be plausible because of the possibility of tapping into state or federal funding. Yirku said an electric ferry would increase start-up costs “so significantly that [the students] didn’t want to put it in their model.”

“All of these things are the next phase of the conversation. I have to tell you that I don’t think we ever anticipated that they would go this far in the financial modeling. It wasn’t required as part of our original request,” Yirku said. “We wanted to know is it possible, and what will be the barriers to make it possible at all — either regulatory or in actuality? They actually went many steps further than we originally anticipated and I think that changing the numbers in the model is easy, now that they’ve created it for us.”

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‘I think they’ve got a great start. If everybody puts some eyes on it, maybe we’ll each see something that requires some further discussion.’

Mark Newsom, vice chair of the EDC board

Yirku also sought direction on the next steps that the EDC should take, whether it be holding a community forum, undertaking a private analysis of the group’s takeaways, or seeking additional funding to conduct an official feasibility study.

Rupp proposed holding a public meeting with EDC members and local port and tribal officials in attendance. Mark Newsom, vice chair of the EDC board, suggested first digging further into the students’ model that they created and taking a longer look at certain figures and costs they came up with before taking it directly to the public.

“For me, I’d probably firm up the foundation of the model with as much help as we could before going out too far to figure out how to fund it,” Newsom said.

“I think they’ve got a great start. If everybody puts some eyes on it, maybe we’ll each see something that requires some further discussion.”