LONG BEACH PENINSULA — If the worst-case scenario occurred, and a tsunami was triggered by an earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone with a magnitude upwards of 9.0, do you know what to do and where to go?

For residents of Klipsan Beach, who are located in the central region of the peninsula, a feasibility study completed late last year for Pacific County Fire District No. 1 shows promise for the construction of a tsunami evacuation tower that could be a safe haven for at least 400 people in the surrounding area.

In the case of “The Big One,” scientific models show the first waves may reach the Pacific County coastline in as little as 15 to 30 minutes. Such a short amount of time to seek refuge is especially difficult for Klipsan Beach residents, who likely would not have time to evacuate the inundation zone or reach higher ground.

The study, completed by architecture firm Rice Fergus Miller and engineering firm Degenkolb Engineers in November 2019, concluded that a 13.1-acre parcel of land the fire district owns on 168th Lane appears to be suitable for the construction of an evacuation tower. When not being used for emergency purposes, it would double as a training building for the fire district.

Built to withstand

According to the study, the elevation of the evacuation tower’s refuge level would be 50 feet, comfortably higher than the design’s expected inundation depth, according to modeling. The American Society of Civil Engineers code requires refuge levels to be set at least 10 feet above inundation depth, and the height of the tower’s refuge level may be refined once site-specific inundation modeling is completed in any future design phase.

The evacuation tower would also include an intermediate level that is also set above the projected inundation height. Since it may take up to two weeks for emergency responders to reach the peninsula, that level would include enclosed, weather-resistant storage rooms for emergency supplies.

Along with essential supplies, the tower would also include some level of permanent shelter from the elements if an extensive wait to be rescued is required. After the one-two punch of both an earthquake and tsunami, the study said there’s no way of knowing how habitable the land below the tower may be.

“Unlike other areas along the Washington state coast that have areas of higher ground within walking distance after an event that likely will have shelter infrastructure remaining, there may be evacuees on the platforms for an extended period, suggesting some degree of permanent shelter from wind would be prudent,” the study said.

The study also takes into account the higher-than-average senior population on the peninsula when it comes to accessibility. As well as being wide enough to comfortably fit two people ascending them at the same time, the stairs would have a lower-than-typical rise of just six inches, and a larger-than-typical tread of 12 inches. The tower would also offer a ramp to use in lieu of stairs to reach the top levels.

Big, expensive obstacle remains

The study also outlined the estimated costs needed to undertake the project. Simply put, it is not cheap.

The study estimates the designing, engineering and construction of the evacuation tower would cost about $8 million on the low end and $13.5 million on the high end, with annual maintenance costs coming in at around $12,000 once construction has been completed.

In its final report, the fire district said the estimated cost of the tower “is considerably greater than understood” when examining the cost of other local evacuation structures, such as a tower in Tokeland.

“Such a construction project would be a formidable financial challenge for a much larger municipal governing agency, much less a fire district,” the fire district’s final report said.

Even with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and Washington State Military Department footing up to 75% to 90% of the total project cost through grants and matching funds, it would still leave the local cost at anywhere from $800,000 to $3.38 million.

Brad Weatherby, assistant fire chief for Pacific County Fire District No. 1, said the gap between the grant amount and the necessary local match “is too large for our agency.”

“In addition, it is not on our primary service responsibilities list,” Weatherby said in an email to the Observer. “We were willing to use minimal resources to explore the idea and start the conversation of what is possible. In short, these grants are geared for municipalities and counties.”

The fire district was able to move forward with the study after coordinating with state and federal officials in 2019 to secure a $120,000 grant.

Well worth the cost

While the price tag for the project seems high, the study found that the overall benefit of the evacuation tower — in terms of lives it could potentially save — is well worth the cost.

Of the about 760 people who live within one mile of the evacuation tower on 168th Lane, a benefit-cost analysis projects that anywhere from 349 to 454 people — depending on the severity of the earthquake — would survive because they were able to make it to the tower in time. Without the tower, the analysis projects 682 to 750 people living within that one-mile zone would be killed.

All told, the benefits of the project comes out to $65.1 million saved, about 4.8 times higher than the cost of the project and well above the 1.0 threshold to be eligible for FEMA funding.

The benefit-cost ratio is very high, according to the study, for several reasons: the entire collection area for the evacuation tower is located within the tsunami inundation area; modeling by University of Washington officials indicates the first arrival of waves will hit less than 30 minutes after the earthquake starts; and evacuation by vehicle is nearly impossible due to roads being heavily damaged by the earthquake, as well as downed power lines and debris from collapsed buildings.

“Given the above factors, the death rate without the proposed vertical evacuation tsunami tower will inevitably be very high,” the analysis finds.

While the feasibility study showed promise for an evacuation tower to be built at the current site, the millions of dollars needed at the local level has the project on hold indefinitely. According to Weatherby, the fire district’s final report, feasibility study and other grant deliverables has been sent to the Washington Emergency Management Division and FEMA.

If the funding were to come together, the process to make the evacuation tower a reality is expected to take several years. It would be the first structure of its kind on the Long Beach Peninsula, and the first of eight towers recommended by Project Safe Haven, conducted by the University of Washington in 2011, to be built on the peninsula.