Climatologists predict weak La Niña this winter

Published 8:15 am Monday, September 16, 2024

A graph shows typical North American weather during La Niña years, with wetter than usual conditions in the Pacific Northwest.

A La Niña probably will form soon, but likely will be weak and short-lived, limiting its influence on winter weather, the National Weather Service predicts.

The weather service’s Climate Prediction Center estimated there is a 71% chance a La Niña will take shape before the end of November and persist through the winter.

Below-average sea-surface temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean trigger a La Niña. The center projects temperatures will fall only enough to create a weak La Niña.

A weak La Niña is less likely to have its conventional influence on the winter, according to the center.

La Niñas generally bring colder and wetter winters to the northern tier of the U.S. and have the opposite effect in the southern tier.

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