Column: Gluesenkamp Perez: Don’t count her out

Published 11:40 am Monday, August 22, 2022

A couple who live in my Longview neighborhood are lifelong Republicans, and when I asked them about the results of the Aug. 2 primary election they huffed and sighed.

The election put them in a gut-wrenching dilemma, they said.

They have long been supporters of six-term Southwest Washington Congresswoman Jamie Herrera Beutler, an old-school Republican. But Herrera Beutler crossed the right wing of the party by voting to impeach former President Donald Trump over the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, and she failed to get enough votes to move past the primary and into the general election this November.

Traditional Republicans lament choice

So my GOP friends are left with a general election choice they lament: Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who was a complete unknown six months ago, or Donald Trump-endorsed Joe Kent, who believes the 2020 stolen election lies and defends rioters who stormed the U.S. Capitol, calling for the hanging of Vice President Mike Pence.

The couple said they simply cannot vote for Kent, disliking him as much as they dislike Trump. They are considering voting for Gluesenkamp Perez, and one of them did vote for Democrat Joe Biden for president in 2020. But, as staunch pro-lifers, the couple may find it hard to stomach Gluesenkamp Perez’s pro-choice stand on abortion.

Many traditional 3rd District Republicans like my neighbors no doubt are pondering the same dilemma. And how they ultimately resolve it may be one of the decisive factors in the Southwest Washington congressional race.

Narrow path for Dem win

To win in the right-leaning 3rd District, Gluesenkamp Perez must get a majority of the traditional GOP vote as well as those of Democrats who cast primary ballots for Herrera Beutler in hopes of playing spoiler to Kent. In all, Herrera Beutler got 22.2% of the primary election vote.

Gluesenkamp Perez is a decided underdog, even though the nonpartisan Cook report recently changed its 3rd District prediction from “solid Republican” to “leans Republican,” largely because Kent’s “far right” views could put the district in play.

Pull Quote

Glusenkamp-Perez is a decided underdog, even though the nonpartisan Cook report recently changed its 3rd District prediction from ‘solid Republican’ to ‘leans Republican’ largely because Kent’s ‘far right’ views could put the district in play.

Simple math suggests Gluesenkamp Perez has a slim path to victory. Kent and Heidi St. John, two right-wingers who fought for a place in the General Election, combined to win 39% of the primary vote. Merge that bloc with votes cast for Clark County conservative legislator Vicki Kraft, and the total rises to 41%. That’s well more than the 31% that went to Gluesenkamp Perez, who tallied the most votes despite entering the race late and lacking money, organization and name recognition.

In addition to drawing Herrera Beutler’s supporters, Gluesenkamp Perez also will have to count on a strong surge of Democratic turnout in the general election, especially in Clark County, where she won 35% of the primary vote.

She may have some history to count on here. The number of general election ballots cast in the 2018 3rd District congressional race was 37% higher than this year’s primary election turnout, giving Gluesenkamp Perez some hope that a higher 2022 general election turnout could boost her chances.

Three necessities

To have any credible chance of winning, Gluesenkamp Perez needs three other things:

One, she needs to vigorously confront the GOP’s rhetoric that links any attempt to improve the lot of the middle class with socialism and a loss of freedom. Kent already is trying to portray her as a liberal. But she is no liberal firebrand, and absent her stance on abortion she likely is closer to the traditional GOP mainstream than Kent is.

The Skamania County resident stresses job training and health care and is not calling for drastic additional gun controls. She and her husband own a Portland car repair business, and she’s focused on encouraging and protecting small businesses.

Two, Gluesenkamp Perez must confront Kent over his demands to impeach Biden, build a useless and costly border wall, and tilt at windmills like those creating a critical teacher shortage across the nation. Kent wants to increase the military budget and balance the budget while cutting taxes. That’s a voodoo strategy that will deepen the deficit, and the rich will get most of the tax benefits. Sounds like trickle-down to me.

Gluesenkamp Perez has other fodder: Kent has suggested raising the Social Security retirement age and cryptically suggests, “We must balance our budget, end needless spending, and dramatically change entitlement spending by expanding options for younger workers.” Is he suggesting doing away with Social Security for young workers?

Kent advocates constitutional carry/concealed carry permit reciprocity in all 50 states and opposes the recently adopted gun bill, and his near-absolutist interpretation of the Second Amendment puts him at odds with the American mainstream.

Third, Gluesenkamp Perez needs the party to put money and organizational expertise into her campaign. She has hired a new campaign manager and received a $300,000 surge in donations the week following the primary — already eclipsing the $240,000 she had raised earlier. That’s still a scant amount compared to the $2.5 million Kent has raised so far.

Democrats in this region are asking the party to consider major support for Gluesenkamp Perez’s campaign. But will the party do so after failing in two costly attempts to flip the district in 2018 and 2020? When it has to hold other seats in hopes of preserving its House majority?

A big party cash infusion seems like a long shot at this point, like Gluesenkamp Perez’s overall chances. But don’t count her out. She has surprised already.