‘Hundreds of people will die’ if stay home order is lifted at this time, Inslee says
Published 3:52 pm Wednesday, April 29, 2020
- State PPE Procurement
OLYMPIA — Gov. Jay Inslee will not fully lift his ‘Stay Home, Stay Healthy’ order on May 4, but he promised to share more details on next steps for Washington’s reopening at a news conference on May 1.
Modeling shows hundreds of people will die if social distancing is relaxed at this time, Inslee said during his news conference on April 29.
“I have to tell you I just don’t think we can become inured to death,” Inslee said. “We see numbers but each one of these numbers is a person. It’s a son who lost their mother, or brother who lost their sister.”
The news conference was to share some of the data Inslee’s office is using to make reopening decisions. It was the first part of a two part discussion on when the state will reopen and what will reopen first, Inslee said. The ‘what’ will come at the May 1 news conference.
Inslee already relaxed some restrictions on the construction industry and outdoor recreation. He also issued new guidance on April 29 about what type of non-urgent surgeries are permitted under the state order, while also laying out guidelines for what personal protective equipment health care workers should have and how long they should use it.
“We know that in every instance of reopening our economy our guidance for lifting these restrictions are based on data and science,” Inslee said. “They are based on our ability to appropriately guard our health.”
Part of the reason Inslee said he is being cautious about reopening was because he wanted to avoid shutting the state down a second time. Cases could surge if restrictions are relaxed too fast, he said.
Disease Activity
The first set of data points Inslee said his office was watching was covid-19 disease activity. The factors included in that are:
- Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths in Washington
- Rates of covid-19 spread throughout Washington – measured by ‘R nought’
- Modeling data on what reopening would do when
- Physical distancing adherence trends in Washington
The overall number of cases is dropping, but it is not yet low enough as there are still about 200 cases being diagnosed daily. That is too high, Inslee said.
‘R nought’ shows how many people become infected for every person that is infected. The goal is to have this rate reduced to less than a one-to-one infection rate. In early March, the ‘R nought’ rate was approaching four, which meant for every person infected about four more became infected, Inslee said.
At the moment, the number is one, which means for every person infected, they will infect one other person. The number dropped that low due to rigorous social distancing, but if social distancing is removed that number will just go back up again, Inslee said.
“We have to get this number down to be in a position to assure ourselves this virus isn’t just going to come roaring back,” Inslee said.
Testing capacity and availability
Labs in Washington can perform a little more than 22,000 covid-19 tests a day. However, right now just about 4,600 tests are being performed per day, due to a lack of test kit supplies. Test swabs must be made of special material, because the virus does not survive on all surfaces, such as those made of cotton. There also needs to be more of the viral media, which is used to transport the swabs to the testing facilities.
More testing supplies must be made and distributed for Washington’s testing capacity to grow. Inslee said he was urging President Donald Trump to help states secure these supplies.
Case and contact investigations
Inslee wants covid-19 case calls to be treated in a similar way to how a fire department responds to a call about a fire. To know if Washington’s investigation and isolation programs are robust enough to handle this, Inslee said his office is looking at four factors:
- Number of investigators trained and working
- Availability of isolation and quarantine facilities in active jurisdictions
- Percent of cases investigated within 24 hours of receipt of positive test report
- Percent of contacts reached within 48 hours of receipt of report
As of April 27, Washington had 565 investigators trained to conduct contact tracing investigations. By May 4, that number will rise as 750 National Guard members begin helping health officials. By May 11, Inslee would like to have 1,500 people ready to do these investigations.
Pacific County’s isolation and quarantine facility capacity is greater than 50%, according to information Inslee presented from the state’s Emergency Management Division.
Inslee did not discuss where the state was on how fast cases are being investigated and how many contacts are being reached within 48 hours.
Risk to vulnerable populations
Covid-19 is not infecting and killing people equally, Inslee said. Hispanic people make up about 30% of cases and 8% of fatalities. This is despite Washington’s Hispanic population being less than 13%.
“This is a non equitable virus and we are dedicated to fighting all we can to try to reduce the inequities associated with this,” Inslee said.
Part of his plan to do this, he said, is to set standards of hygiene in the agricultural community.
Health care system readiness
Should the covid-19 pandemic resurge, Inslee wants Washington’s health care system ready.
“This virus has been shown to frankly explode, that has happened in New York, it has happened in Louisiana,” Inslee said.
The data Inslee is looking at in this area is measured by:
- Hospital beds
- ICU capacity
- Ventilator numbers
- State PPE procurement
As of April 27, the state had received a little less than 14 million pieces of PPE. But, that is a fraction of what the state had ordered.
“Appreciate a chance to talk about this we know people are extremely interested in our decision making, we wanted to share with you virtually everything we use in making these hard decisions,” Inslee said. “We’ve talk today about the things that go into when we make these decisions, Friday we hope to talk about how those will translate into the next phase of opening in our business life.”