Southwest Washington and western Oregon have deteriorated from moderate to “severe drought” in the past 10 days, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported July 26.

The southwest corner of Washington, making up 6 percent of the state, moved from moderate to severe drought. Approximately the southern two-thirds of normally moist Pacific County are in severe drought, with the remainder in moderate drought. All of Wahkiakum and Clark counties are in severe drought, along with parts of Lewis, Cowlitz and Skamania counties.

Virtually all of Pacific County and part of southern Grays Harbor County are experiencing all-time record low stream flows. There is only 32 percent as much water in the Naselle River as there is on average at this time of year in records going back most of a century. The Willapa River is at 35 percent of average for this time of year.

The weekly drought report, a snapshot of current conditions, continues a summer-long trend toward drought developing in the Northwest. The USDA reported this week that while some crops were thriving in the heat, others were showing signs of stress.

The USDA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the University of Nebraska collaborate on the Drought Monitor. The four stages of drought range from moderate to exceptional.

Some 83 percent of Oregon and 29 percent of Washington are at least in moderate drought. Most areas not in drought are “abnormally dry,” according to the monitor.

Two months ago, Washington was on the wet side, as was Western Oregon. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center says the odds favor above-average temperatures and below-normal precipitation to continue for the rest of the summer.

Washington State Assistant Climatologist Karin Bumbaco said periodic summer rains have been absent, while temperatures have been high.

“It’s looking like it’ll get worse before it gets better,” she said.

Washington State Climatologist Nick Bond said he expects August to be warmer than average, but for temperatures to be more moderate than in July.

“I don’t think there will be the sustained heat as it has been in July,” he said.

Sea-surface temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean have been warming up. There is a 70 percent an El Niño will form next winter, according to the Climate Prediction Center. Northwest winters are generally warm during an El Niño.

La Niña conditions, a cooling of the ocean associated with robust snowpacks, have prevailed the past two winters. A third straight La Niña can probably be ruled out, Bond said.

“My feeling is that it’s more likely than not to get into the weak to moderate El Niño category,” he said.

A severe drought that already had covered much of Eastern Oregon crossed over the Cascades into the Willamette Valley and as far south as Douglas County. The percentage of Oregon in severe drought more than doubled to 55 percent from 25 percent.

“What we really need is to see some recovery in soil moisture and streams flows, and the long-term forecast is hot and dry,” said Kathie Dello, associate director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute.

—The Chinook Observer added to this story