Ear to the Ground: Coincidences
Published 5:00 pm Tuesday, August 3, 2004
Recently, I stopped at a local supermarket to purchase a few items. Kris totaled the bill at $5.37 and I handed her a $5 bill, then dug into my pocket for the remaining 37 cents. I fished out all the change in my pocket – and it totaled exactly 37 cents. Has that ever happened to you?
How about those times when you’re thinking about someone you haven’t heard from in a long time, and suddenly the telephone rings, and it’s that person? (That happened to me twice last Christmas.) Or when you’re looking for a solution to a problem, and you open a book randomly to a page that contains precisely what you’re looking for?
Coincidences, highly improbable events, often happen to us. Something falls toward us out of the blue – coincidence. Depending on the rarity or significance of the event, some of us might even call those highly improbable moments miracles.
For instance: one evening in March 1950, a church choir in Beatrice, Neb., experienced both an annoying and a marvelous coincidence. The annoying coincidence was that everyone happened to be late for rehearsal that evening. That was pretty remarkable because the choir consisted of 15 people.
It’s not as if they were all delayed by the same snowstorm, however. One delay involved an overly long nap. Another occurred because a car wouldn’t start. Finishing some geometry homework delayed someone else
The delays were not all perfectly independent, because some families contributed more than one choir member and delays were household specific. Still, there were a total of ten households with delays that could clearly be considered independent. The probability of that happening on a single evening is calculated at one in 10 million.
The annoying coincidence was that everyone was late. However, it turned out to be a marvelous coincidence because the delays all occurred the very evening that a freak accident occurred.
An explosion destroyed the church a few minutes after the time that choir practice was scheduled to start. In a March 27, 1950, Life magazine article, choir members wondered aloud whether the peculiar series of delays might have been divine providence at work.
Okay? Now think about shared birthdays. Given any random selection of 23 or more people, there’s a 50 percent chance that two will celebrate the same birthday. In fact, when I taught a Grays Harbor College course last year, one of the nine students in my class shared my birthday of Sept. 21.
Experts claim there’s a 90 percent probability that at least two of the 43 U.S. presidents share the same birthday. Indeed, Warren G. Harding and James K. Polk were both born on Nov. 2. Of the 37 dead presidents, three died on July 4 – John Adams, Thomas Jefferson and James Monroe. Two other presidents, Millard Fillmore and William Howard Taft, died on March 8. Interesting coincidences.
What are the odds of two golfers, both named Evans, playing together in a 2003 pairs event in Ammandford, Wales, hitting consecutive holes-in-one? Richard Evans aced the 192-yard third hole, his first hole-in-one in 15 years of golfing. Odds were one in 27,000. Immediately after Richard Evans’ ace, partner Mark Evans (no relation) hit a hole-in-one on the next shot of the match. Amazing.
On a more personal note, I recently flew from Portland to Phoenix. While waiting to board, I struck up a conversation with a pleasant fellow from Portland and asked him what row he was seated in. It was row 26. I was seated in row 26 and sat next to him during the flight. Seven days later, returning from Phoenix, I struck up a conversation with another pleasant Portlander and couldn’t resist asking her what row she was seated in. It was row 23. I was in row 23 and sat near her. Amazing.
One day after returning from Arizona, I purchased household goods and groceries at a nearby supermarket. The bill total was $66.66. Two days later, I played a Keno game using row numbers 23 and 26, plus others containing a three or a six. I won $75. Amazing.
Then I checked out a library book called “Arizona Guide.” The front cover photo was of Cathedral Rock at Sedona and the back photo was of Antelope Canyon near Page. I had visited both sites just days before checking out the book. Amazing.
Am I blessed or what? I’m not sure, but I hope the “trend” continues.
Reach Observer correspondent Robert Brake at oobear@pacifier.com.